Συνοπτική και αριθμητική μελέτη βαρομετρικών χαμηλών με χαρακτηριστικά τροπικού κυκλώνα στη Μεσόγειο

Χρυσόστομος Παρανός-Λιόλιος

Συνοπτική και αριθμητική μελέτη βαρομετρικών χαμηλών με χαρακτηριστικά τροπικού κυκλώνα στη Μεσόγειο

Χρυσόστομος Παρανός-Λιόλιος

Περίληψη

Η παρούσα εργασία μελετά την ύπαρξη και την ανάπτυξη βαρομετρικών χαμηλών με χαρακτηριστικά τροπικού κυκλώνα στη Μεσόγειο (Μεσογειακοί Τυφώνες – Μ.Τ.). Η εμφάνιση τέτοιων συστημάτων στη Μεσόγειο δεν είναι συχνή (περίπου 1.5 Μ.Τ. ανά έτος σύμφωνα με τη διεθνή βιβλιογραφία) και η αρχική αναγνώρισή τους γίνεται μέσω των δορυφορικών εικόνων. Αρχικά μελετήθηκαν τρεις περιπτώσεις (27/01/2009, 06/04/2009 και 08-09/11/2011) συστημάτων που εμφάνισαν ενδείξεις Μ.Τ. (όπως κυκλωνική κυκλοφορία και ανέφελη περιοχή στο κέντρο τους). Έπειτα από έρευνα που πραγματοποιήθηκε με τις υψηλής χωρικής διακριτοποίησης παγκόσμιες επιχειρησιακές αναλύσεις του Ευρωπαϊκού Κέντρου Μεσοπρόθεσμων Προγνώσεων καιρού (ECMWF), διαπιστώθηκε ότι μόνο μία περίπτωση (08/11/2011 06UTC έως 9/11/2011 06UTC) εμφάνιζε ξεκάθαρα χαρακτηριστικά τροπικού κυκλώνα. Το “μητρικό” βαρομετρικό χαμηλό δημιουργήθηκε την 4η Νοεμβρίου 2011 στην Ισπανία πάνω από τα Πυρηναία όρη. Αιτία της κυκλογένεσης θεωρείται η ύπαρξη μιας βαθιάς ύφεσης στον ανατολικό Ατλαντικό ωκεανό συνοδευόμενη από μετωπική δραστηριότητα που προκάλεσε τη δημιουργία αποκομμένης ύφεσης στο δυτικό άκρο της Ευρωπαϊκής ηπείρου. Στη συνέχεια η ύφεση κινήθηκε πάνω από τη θάλασσα όπου και εμφάνισε χαρακτηριστικά τροπικού κυκλώνα στις 08/11/2011 06UTC ενώ μία ημέρα μετά πέρασε πάνω από την ξηρά στη νότια Γαλλία και σταδιακά διαλύθηκε, διατηρώντας χαρακτηριστικά Μ.Τ. για 24 ώρες. Έντονες ανοδικές κινήσεις σχετίζονταν με νέφη κατακόρυφης ανάπτυξης που προκάλεσαν ισχυρές βροχοπτώσεις τόσο στη θάλασσα όσο και στις ηπειρωτικές περιοχές πλησίον του κυκλώνα (Belauntza-Ισπανία, 350 χιλιοστά, Alghero-Ιταλία, 118 χιλιοστά, Τουλόν-Γαλλία, 193.2 χιλιοστά). Για την πληρέστερη μελέτη του συστήματος έγιναν πειράματα ευαισθησίας με το μη-υδροστατικό περιοχικό αριθμητικό μοντέλο πρόγνωσης καιρού Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF - ARW) και χωρική διακριτοποίηση 5 χλμ x 5 χλμ. Στο πείραμα ελέγχου, εφαρμόστηκε το σχήμα ανωμεταφοράς Betts-Miler-Janjic το οποίο εμφάνισε καλύτερα αποτελέσματα από το σχήμα Kain-Fritsch και παρόμοια αποτελέσματα με αυτά ενός πειράματος με απενεργοποιημένο το σχήμα ανωμεταφοράς. Η ανάλυση των αριθμητικών πειραμάτων έδειξε ότι οι ροές θερμότητας και η τοπογραφία της Ιβηρικής Χερσονήσου δεν έπαιξαν σημαντικό ρόλο στη δημιουργία του “μητρικού” χαμηλού, αλλά συντέλεσαν σημαντικά στην ανάπτυξή του ως Μ.Τ.

This study investigates the existence and development of low pressure systems with tropical cyclone characteristics, in the Mediterranean region (MEDIterranean hurriCANES - medicanes). The occurrence of such systems in the Mediterranean is not common (approximately 1.5 cases per year according to the international literature) and they are identified through satellite images. At first, three low-pressure systems (27/01/2009, 06/04/2009 and 08-09/11/2011) with medicane signs, such as cyclonic circulation and a free-cloud central region, were investigated. The examination of the high resolution global operational analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) showed that only one case (08/11/2011 06UTC to 9/11/2011 06UTC) exhibited obvious tropical cyclone characteristics. Its “parent” low-pressure system formed on November 4 2011, in Spain over the Pyrenees Mountains. The cyclogenesis was associated with a deep frontal depression in the Atlantic Ocean which caused a cut-off low over western Europe. Afterwards, the cyclone moved over the sea where it started to exhibit hurricane-like characteristics on 08/11/2011 06UTC and it was upgraded to a medicane. One day later it made landfall over southern France and gradually dissolved, keeping its medicane status for 24 hours. Heavy precipitation associated with deep convection was observed both over sea and inland areas in the vicinity of the system (Belauntza-Spain, 350mm, Alghero-Italy, 118mm, Toulon-France, 193.2mm). For the better investigation of the system, sensitivity experiments were carried out with the non-hydrostatic limited area numerical weather prediction model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF - ARW) and a grid spacing of 5 km x 5 km. The control run employed the Betts-Miler-Janjic convective parameterization which produced better results than Kain-Fritsch scheme and similar evolution of the medicane with an experiment in which the convective parameterization was turned off. The analysis of the numerical experiments showed that the surface heat fluxes and the topography of Iberian Peninsula were very important for the development of the medicane.

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