Συμβολή στη μελέτη σμηνοσεισμών = Modeling of earthquake swarms: Occurrence patterns, evolution mecahnisms and possible triggering.

Μαρία Μεσημέρη

Συμβολή στη μελέτη σμηνοσεισμών = Modeling of earthquake swarms: Occurrence patterns, evolution mecahnisms and possible triggering.

Μαρία Μεσημέρη

Περίληψη

Η μελέτη των σμηνοσειρών αποτελεί ένα από τα πλέον σύγχρονα πεδία έρευνας στον τομέα της Σεισμολογίας, λόγω των ιδιαίτερων χωρο-χρονικών τους χαρακτηριστικών και του τρόπου δημιουργίας και εξέλιξής τους. Οι σμηνοσειρές συνιστούν μία κατηγορία σεισμικών εξάρσεων στην οποία απουσιάζει «ο κύριος σεισμός», δηλαδή αυτός που υπερέχει σε μέγεθος σε σχέση με τους υπόλοιπους σεισμούς της έξαρσης. Τα αίτια που προκαλούν τις σμηνοσειρές μπορεί να οφείλονται στην τεκτονική φόρτιση της περιοχής αλλά επίσης και στην ύπαρξη ρευστών ή σε ανθρωπογενείς παράγοντες, όπως στη διάνοιξη γεωτρήσεων και εισπίεση ρευστών που στοχεύει στην οικονομική εκμετάλλευση. Σκοπό της παρούσας διατριβής αποτελεί η διερεύνηση των ιδιοτήτων των σμηνοσειρών στον ελληνικό χώρο με βάση τη μεταβολή των χωρο-χρονικών τους ιδιοτήτων στοχεύοντας στη συσχέτισή τους με τις διαδικασίες γένεσης των ισχυρών σεισμών και τελικό σκοπό τη συμβολή στην εκτίμηση της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας. Ο κύριος όγκος της έρευνας αφορά την περιοχή του Κορινθιακού κόλπου, με έμφαση στο δυτικό τμήμα του, ο οποίος αποτελεί μία από τις πιο ενεργά σεισμικές περιοχές του ελληνικού χώρου. Επιπλέον, χρησιμοποιήθηκαν δεδομένα από τοπικό πείραμα στην περιοχή της Φλώρινας (ΒΔ Ελλάδα) με σκοπό την ερμηνεία του μηχανισμού δημιουργίας των σμηνοσειρών στην περιοχή. Αρχικά, συλλέγονται τα απαραίτητα σεισμολογικά δεδομένα με σκοπό τη σύνταξη καταλόγων σεισμών για κάθε περιοχή, οι οποίοι ελέγχονται ως προς τις κλίμακες μεγεθών που έχουν χρησιμοποιηθεί και ανάγονται σε μία κλίμακα. Το σημαντικότερο τμήμα της διατριβής αποτελεί ο προσδιορισμός των εστιακών συντεταγμένων με μεγάλη ακρίβεια, χρησιμοποιώντας τις μεθόδους των διπλών διαφορών και της διασυσχέτισης κυματομορφών. Η ακρίβεια στις εστιακές συντεταγμένες κάνει εφικτή τη μελέτη των χωρο-χρονικών ιδιοτήτων των σμηνοσειρών. Έτσι, χρησιμοποιώντας κατάλληλους αλγορίθμους αποσυσταδοποίησης καταλόγων σεισμών, αναγνωρίζονται οι σεισμικές εξάρσεις. Οι σεισμικές εξάρσεις συσχετίζονται με τμήματα ρηγμάτων και προσδιορίζονται οι γεωμετρικές τους ιδιότητες με βάση τη χωρική κατανομή των σεισμών στις τρεις διαστάσεις. Σημαντικό εργαλείο για την επαλήθευση της γεωμετρίας αυτής αποτελούν οι μηχανισμοί γένεσης οι οποίοι συμβάλλουν επιπλέον στην ερμηνεία του πεδίου τάσεων στην περιοχή μελέτης. Ως προς τις χρονικές ιδιότητες οι σεισμικές εξάρσεις διακρίθηκαν σε σμηνοσειρές και εξάρσεις του τύπου μετασεισμικών ακολουθιών με κυριότερο κριτήριο την έκλυση της σεισμικής ροπής σε μία έξαρση. Στη συνέχεια, εξετάστηκαν ενδελεχώς οι χρονικές ιδιότητες κυρίως των σμηνοσειρών εφαρμόζοντας τόσο στοχαστικά μοντέλα, όσο και μελετώντας την κατανομή των χρόνων μεταξύ διαδοχικών σεισμών. Αναφορικά με τον μηχανισμό δημιουργίας και εξέλιξης των σμηνοσειρών, γίνεται συσχέτιση της ύπαρξης ρευστών στις περιοχές μελέτης με την εκδήλωση σμηνοσειρών. Το κυριότερο χαρακτηριστικό που οδηγεί σε αυτή την ερμηνεία είναι η μετανάστευση των εστιών, η οποία παρατηρείται κατά την εκδήλωση των σμηνοσεισμών. Επίσης, σημαντικό ρόλο διαδραματίζουν οι μεταβολές των τάσεων Coulomb στη χωρο-χρονική εξέλιξη των σμηνοσειρών. Κατά τη διάρκεια των σμηνοσειρών, ειδικότερα σε περιπτώσεις όπου η εκδήλωση τους οφείλεται σε ύπαρξη ρευστών, παρατηρούνται επαναληπτικοί σεισμοί, δηλαδή σεισμοί οι οποίοι έχουν όμοια σεισμογράμματα.

The study of earthquake swarms is one of the most modern topics in the field of Seismology due to their unique triggering and evolution mechanisms. Earthquake swarms are a type of earthquake sequence, where a dominant in magnitude earthquake is absent. The triggering mechanism of earthquake swarms could be either due to tectonic loading or to the existence of fluids or anthropogenic activity in an area, such as fluid intrusion in wells for commercial use. The main goal of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal properties of earthquake swarms in Greece aiming to associate their occurrence with the triggering of strong earthquakes and contribute to the seismic hazard assessment. The main study area is the Gulf of Corinth, and especially its western part, where frequent seismic excitations occur. This study also uses data from a local network that operated in the area of Florina (NW Greece) for six months, in order to interpret the triggering mechanism of earthquake swarms. First, all available seismological data are gathered in order to compile earthquake catalogs for each area. These catalogs are checked regarding the magnitude scales that were used and are homogenized into one. The fundamental part of this thesis is the relocation of the earthquakes using the double difference method and waveform cross correlation techniques. The high accuracy in earthquake location allows the study of the spatiotemporal properties of earthquake swarms. It was then possible to identify seismic excitations using declustering algorithms. The identified seismic excitations are associated with certain fault segments and their characteristics are defined based on the three dimensional distribution of the earthquake focal parameters. An important tool in order to verify the geometry of the identified fault segments is the computation of fault plane solutions, which also contribute to the understanding of the stress field in the study area. Regarding the temporal properties, seismic excitations are distinguished into earthquake swarm and mainshock – aftershock sequences, taking into account the seismic moment release history in each excitation. Then, the temporal properties of the identified earthquake swarms are investigated in detail by applying stochastic models and examining the interevent time distribution. Regarding the triggering mechanism and the evolution of earthquake swarms, an attempt to associate their occurrence with the existence of fluids is made. The migration of the epicenters, which is commonly observed in earthquake swarms, is investigated in this study. Coulomb stress changes could also play an important role to earthquake triggering and the evolution of an earthquake swarm. Repeating earthquakes (i.e. earthquakes with identical seismograms) are observed during the evolution of earthquake swarms, especially when their occurrence is due to fluid intrusion.

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Αναφορές

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