Μελέτη της ευαισθησίας ενός αριθμητικού μοντέλου πρόγνωσης καιρού στην παραμετροποίηση της ανοδικής μεταφοράς. = Sensitivity study of a numerical weather prediction model on the parameterization of convection.

Χρήστος Χατζούδης

Μελέτη της ευαισθησίας ενός αριθμητικού μοντέλου πρόγνωσης καιρού στην παραμετροποίηση της ανοδικής μεταφοράς. = Sensitivity study of a numerical weather prediction model on the parameterization of convection.

Χρήστος Χατζούδης

Περίληψη

Στην παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία γίνεται η μελέτη της ευαισθησίας του μη υδροστατικού μοντέλου WRF-ARW στα σχήματα παραμετροποίησης της ανοδικής μεταφοράς Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) και Grell-Freitas (GF). Συνολικά χρησιμοποιούνται δέκα συνδυασμοί αυτών των σχημάτων και εξήντα προσομοιώσεις. Επιχειρείται η αξιολόγηση του μοντέλου στη χρήση ή όχι, και ποιου σχήματος, σε πλέγμα υψηλής ανάλυσης (1,667kmX1,667km) ενώ στην περίπτωση της μη χρήσης ερευνάται ποιο σχήμα δίνει τα καλύτερα αποτελέσματα με την ενεργοποίησή του στα αμέσως μεγαλύτερα πλέγματα (coarser parent grids). Η αξιολόγηση γίνεται για τη διάρκεια της θερμής περιόδου, η οποία προσδιορίζεται από το Μάιο έως και το Σεπτέμβριο, για έξι περιπτώσεις οι οποίες διακρίθηκαν σε τρεις περιπτώσεις ισχυρού και τρεις περιπτώσεις ασθενούς δυναμικού εξαναγκασμού (ΠΙΔΕ και ΠΑΔΕ αντίστοιχα) οι οποίες επιλέγησαν από έξι διαφορετικά χρόνια και επηρέασαν την ευρύτερη περιοχή της Θεσσαλονίκης. Για την αξιολόγηση του μοντέλου ως προς τις συνεχείς μεταβλητές (θερμοκρασία στα 2m, θερμοκρασία σημείου δρόσου στα 2m και πίεση στη μέση στάθμη θάλασσας) χρησιμοποιήθηκαν παρατηρήσεις σταθμών επιφανείας ενώ, ως προς τη μεταβλητή του υετού χρησιμοποιήθηκαν οι εκτιμήσεις μετεωρολογικού Ραντάρ. Διαπιστώθηκε ότι για τις συνεχείς μεταβλητές, η ενεργοποίηση του σχήματος ανοδικής μεταφοράς στο πλέγμα υψηλής ανάλυσης βελτιώνει τα αποτελέσματα του μοντέλου σε όλες τις περιπτώσεις. Για τη μεταβλητή του υετού, τα καλύτερα αποτελέσματα λαμβάνουν χώρα δίχως την ενεργοποίηση των σχημάτων ανοδικής μεταφοράς στο πλέγμα υψηλής ανάλυσης, με το σχήμα των Kain-Fritsch να είναι καλύτερο στις περιπτώσεις με ισχυρό δυναμικό εξαναγκασμό και το σχήμα των Betts-Miller-Janjic να είναι καλύτερο στις περιπτώσεις με ασθενές δυναμικό εξαναγκασμό. Αυτή η συμπεριφορά φαίνεται να σχετίζεται με τη μεθοδολογία ενεργοποίησης του κάθε σχήματος καθώς, το σχήμα των Kain-Fritsch απαιτεί ικανοποιητικά κατώφλια ανοδικών ταχυτήτων κάτι το οποίο προσφέρεται από τη σύγκλιση των αερίων μαζών στις περιπτώσεις με ισχυρό δυναμικό εξαναγκασμό ενώ το σχήμα των Betts-Miller-Janjic ενεργοποιείται ευκολότερα στις περιπτώσεις με ασθενές δυναμικό εξαναγκασμό όπου ο αέρας κοντά στο έδαφος θερμαίνεται και ανυψώνεται ευκολότερα.

The sensitivity of the non-hydrostatic WRF-ARW numerical weather prediction model on Convection Parameterization Schemes of Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Grell-Freitas (GF) was considered in this work. Ten combination of these CPS were used and totally sixty runs were simulated. The sensitivity of the model skill on the above-mentioned CPS combination was investigated in order to answer the next two questions. Is the usage of a convection scheme in the finest grid of model (1,667kmX1,667km) necessary for better model performance and which one? If not, which convection scheme can be used in the coarser outer grid in order to achieve the best scores? The validation of model takes place during the warm period simulating three cases with strong dynamic forcing and three cases of weak dynamic forcing which occurred over the greater area of Thessaloniki. The cases were chosen from six different years. Three continuous variables (temperature, dew point temperature and mean sea level pressure) were evaluated against observations from meteorological weather stations. The categorical variable of precipitation was evaluated using precipitation estimates from a meteorological Radar. The statistical scores showed that the usage of convection schemes in the finer grid improved the model prediction, concerning the continoues variables, in all cases. In the contrary, concerning the categorical variable, the use of a convection scheme did not improve the model prediction. KF scheme produced the best precipitation scores in the strong dynamic forcing cases and BMJ scheme in the weak dynamic forcing cases. It is estimated that this different behavior is associated with the triggering function of each scheme. The KF scheme demands satisfactory thresholds of vertical updrafts which are induced by convergence in the cases of strong dynamic forcing. The Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme is activated more easily in cases of weak dynamic cases where the atmospheric conditions permit the air above the ground to be heated and rised considerably.

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