Εκτίμηση και αποάθροιση της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας του ελληνικού χώρου με τη χρήση τυχαίων καταλόγων = Estimation and deaggregation of seismic hazard in the area of Greece using random catalogues

Αθανασία Σ. Κερκένου

Εκτίμηση και αποάθροιση της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας του ελληνικού χώρου με τη χρήση τυχαίων καταλόγων = Estimation and deaggregation of seismic hazard in the area of Greece using random catalogues

Αθανασία Σ. Κερκένου

Περίληψη

Στην παρούσα διατριβή μελετάται η χωρική κατανομή της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας της Ελλάδας για τέσσερις βασικές παραμέτρους, τη μέγιστη αναμενόμενη μακροσεισμική ένταση (IMM), τη μέγιστη εδαφική επιτάχυνση (PGA), τη μέγιστη εδαφική ταχύτητα (PGV) και τη μέγιστη εδαφική μετάθεση (PGD). Για το σκοπό αυτό χρησιμοποιήθηκε μια μέθοδος προσομοίωσης τύπου Monte Carlo, με τη χρήση συνθετικών καταλόγων σεισμικότητας. Η εκτίμηση της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας έγινε με την απευθείας εξέτασης των ιστογραμμάτων των αναμενόμενων τιμών εδαφικής κίνησης, καθώς και με εφαρμογή της κατανομής πιθανότητας Gumbel τύπου 1 και τύπου 3 στα αποτελέσματα των αναλύσεων. Στο πλαίσιο της διατριβής γίνεται σύγκριση των αποτελεσμάτων αυτών των δύο (2) προσεγγίσεων, και διερευνήθηκε ποια από αυτές οδηγεί σε πιο αξιόπιστα αποτελέσματα για τον Ελληνικό χώρο. Επιπλέον, με τον υπολογισμό των καμπυλών σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας, έγινε σύγκριση της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας των παραπάνω παραμέτρων για 20 επιλεγμένες πόλεις του Ελληνικού χώρου.
    Ο καθορισμός των σεισμικών πηγών από τις οποίες προέρχεται η σεισμική επικινδυνότητα κάθε θέσης, καθώς και της επικεντρικής απόστασης αλλά και του μεγέθους του σεισμού που είναι πιθανό να επηρεάσει περισσότερο το σημείο παρατήρησης είναι ιδιαίτερα σημαντικές παράμετροι π.χ. για τη λήψη αποφάσεων σχετικών με τους σεισμούς σχεδιασμού. Για το λόγο αυτό, στην παρούσα διατριβή έγινε αποάθροιση της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας των τεσσάρων παραμέτρων για 20 προαναφερθείσες επιλεγμένες περιοχές, αξιοποιώντας τα αποτελέσματα των συνθετικών καταλόγων. Τα αποτελέσματα που προκύπτουν είναι συγκρίσιμα με τα αποτελέσματα άλλων μεθόδων, ενώ αναδεικνύουν και τα πλεονεκτήματα της χρήσης συνθετικών καταλόγων.

   In this thesis we examine the spatial distribution of the seismic hazard of Greece for four basic parameters, namely maximum expected macroseismic intensity (IMM), Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), and Peak Ground Displacement (PGD). For this purpose a Monte Carlo simulation method was used, which employs synthetic seismic catalogs. Seismic hazard assessment was performed by the assessment of the histograms of the expected seismic motion levels, as well as by the application of the Gumbel type 1 and type 3 probability distributions to the final Monte Carlo results. The results of these two (2) approaches were compared and we investigated which approach leads to more reliable results for the area of Greece. Furthermore, by extracting seismic hazard curves from the fimal results, the seismic hazard of the previous parameters was compared for 20 selected areas (points of interest) of Greece.
    The determination of the seismic source from which the seismic hazard originates for each point of interest, as well as the epicentral distance and magnitude of the earthquake most likely to affect the observation point is considered necessary for decision-making e.g. appropriate determination of design earthquakes. For this reason, seismic hazard deaggregation of the previous four parameters for the 20 selected areas was also performed in this thesis. The obtained results are comparable with alternative approaches, while identifying the advantages of the use of synthetic catalogues.

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Αναφορές

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