Climate and more specifically air temperature, chiefly determine whether a given region can be considered suitable for viable viticulture and the production of wines of optimum quality. The cultural importance and status of wine making in Greece is very important and hence wine sector attracts considerable attention due to its economic contribution in Greek domestic product. The aims of this thesis were to define the climate structure for each one of the principal winegrape areas in Greece during the recent past and future periods and to classify the winegrape areas according to the main bioclimatic indices from the literature. In addition, we investigate the temporal and spatial evolution of harvest dates and berry composition (potential alcohol level and acidity) in principal winegrape varieties in Greece and also we attempt to estimate heat demands of the currently cultivated winegrape varieties. The results were used to simulate future harvest dates of the studied varieties according to their heat requirements. Finally, we investigate wine quality trends and their relationships with recent and future climate conditions. The first chapters introduce the topics of interest through literature review. For the purposes of this dissertation, the following chapters used historical daily climatic temperature and precipitation data, harvest dates and berry composition records, and wine ratings from the Thessaloniki International Wine and Spirits Competition. Finally, the last chapter provides the conclusions of all chapters, tying together the findings of the thesis. The results showed that mainland locations were generally colder while coastal and island are experiencing more extreme events and drier periods. Moreover, minimum temperatures significantly increased at a higher rate than the respective maximum in most of the cases. Climate change scenarios suggested significant shifts towards warmer and drier conditions according to the bioclimatic indices used putting additional pressure to the already hot regions in Greece. Furthermore, harvest dates are shifted significantly earlier, due to warmer conditions mainly during ripening period. In addition, trends in potential alcohol (acid) levels were found to be positively (negatively) correlated with maximum air temperatures in most cases. Future projection analysis showed that harvest dates are projected to shift earlier for over a month depending on the variety and the emission pathway. The late ripening indigenous Greek varieties appear better adapted to the recent and projected future climate of the region, responding less to warming as compared to international varieties. Finally, wine quality trend analysis showed a statistically significant upward trend over the recent past and in the future periods in most of the varieties, mainly driven by higher maximum temperatures and drier conditions during the growing season of the grapevines. This thesis presents a potential valuable tool for the producers to consult in order to manipulate phenological and region-specific climate changes under future conditions. However, there is a necessity for better understanding the upper thresholds of the traditional bioclimatic indices for each variety as well as the probability of underestimating the progress in wine making procedures and techniques and the implementation of the adaptive measures by the growers.

Η παράμετρος του κλίματος και ιδιαίτερα η θερμοκρασία του αέρα, καθορίζει σε μεγάλο βαθμό αν μια περιοχή μπορεί να θεωρηθεί κατάλληλη για αμπελοκαλλιέργεια και για την παραγωγή οίνων υψηλής ποιότητας. Στην Ελλάδα, η αμπελοκαλλιέργεια έχει μεγάλη παράδοση και ο κλάδος της οινοποιίας είναι ένας από τους σημαντικότερους τομείς της οικονομίας. Σκοπός της παρούσας διατριβής είναι να καθορίσει τις κλιματικές συνθήκες που επικρατούν σε κάθε μια από τις περιοχές μελέτης στο πρόσφατο παρελθόν αλλά και σε μελλοντικές περιόδους σύμφωνα με τους βιοκλιματικούς δείκτες της βιβλιογραφίας. Επιπλέον, διερευνήθηκε η διαχρονική εξέλιξη των αμπελουργικών παραμέτρων (ημερομηνίες τρύγου, ποσοστό αλκοόλ και επίπεδα οξύτητας) και οι θερμικές ανάγκες για έναν σημαντικό αριθμό ποικιλιών που καλλιεργούνται στην Ελλάδα. Τα αποτελέσματα αυτά χρησιμοποιήθηκαν για την προσομοίωση της εξέλιξης του σταδίου του τρύγου των ποικιλιών. Τέλος, διερευνήθηκε η διαχρονική εξέλιξη της ποιότητας του παραγόμενου οίνου στην Ελλάδα καθώς και η επίδραση του κλίματος στην μεταβολή της ποιότητας του σε τωρινές και μελλοντικές συνθήκες. Τα πρώτα κεφάλαια της διατριβής παρουσιάζουν τα ερευνητικά ερωτήματα καθώς και μια βιβλιογραφική ανασκόπηση αυτών. Προκειμένου να απαντηθούν τα ερευνητικά ερωτήματα της διατριβής, στα επόμενα τρία κεφάλαια χρησιμοποιούνται ημερήσια κλιματικά δεδομένα, ημερομηνίες τρύγου, ποσοστό αλκοόλ, επίπεδα οξύτητας καθώς και οινικές αξιολογήσεις από τον Διεθνή Διαγωνισμό Οίνου και Αποσταγμάτων Θεσσαλονίκης. Τέλος, το τελευταίο κεφάλαιο αποτελεί μια ανακεφαλαίωση των ερευνητικών αποτελεσμάτων της διατριβής. Η ανάλυση των κλιματικών παραμέτρων έδειξε μια διαφοροποίηση του κλίματος κυρίως στις περιοχές της νησιωτικής Ελλάδας με θερμότερες και ξηρότερες συνθήκες κατά τον ετήσιο κύκλο της αμπέλου και κατά την περίοδο της ωρίμανσης της παραγωγής. Η ελάχιστη θερμοκρασία αέρα αυξάνεται με ταχύτερο ρυθμό και ένταση, από την αντίστοιχη μέγιστη στην πλειοψηφία των περιοχών μελέτης. Η ανάλυση του μελλοντικού κλίματος υπαγορεύει ακόμα θερμότερες και ξηρότερες συνθήκες, σύμφωνα με τους χρησιμοποιούμενους από την βιβλιογραφία δείκτες. Το στάδιο του τρύγου παρουσίασε στατιστικά σημαντική πρωίμιση στην πλειοψηφία των περιπτώσεων ενώ η περιεκτικότητα του γλεύκους σε αλκοόλ και οξέα, παρουσίασε αυξητική και πτωτική τάση, αντίστοιχα. Η ανάλυση της προβολής του σταδίου του τρύγου στο μέλλον έδειξε ότι αυτό θα μετακινηθεί έως και 40 ημέρες νωρίτερα, ανάλογα με την ποικιλία και το σενάριο μελέτης. Οι ελληνικές όψιμες ποικιλίες εμφανίζουν μεγαλύτερη ανθεκτικότητα σε σχέση με τις αντίστοιχες μέσης και πρώιμης ωρίμανσης και διεθνείς ποικιλίες. Τέλος, η ανάλυση της ποιότητας του οίνου στο πρόσφατο παρελθόν αλλά και στο μέλλον, παρουσιάζει σημαντική αυξητική τάση επηρεαζόμενη κυρίως από τις θερμότερες και ξηρότερες συνθήκες που επικρατούν κατά την βλαστική περίοδο ανάπτυξης του φυτού. Η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή θα μπορούσε δυνητικά να αποτελέσει ένα σημαντικό συμβουλευτικό εργαλείο για την υποστήριξη των παραγωγών στα πλαίσια των φαινολογικών αποκρίσεων των ποικιλιών και των κλιματικών συνθηκών των περιοχών υπό το πρίσμα της κλιματικής αλλαγής. Ωστόσο, τα ανώτερα θερμοκρασιακά όρια μέσα στα οποία μια ποικιλία μπορεί να παράγει οίνους εξαιρετικής ποιότητας, πρέπει να οριοθετηθούν. Τέλος, σημαντικό ρόλο στην αυξητική πορεία της ποιότητας του ελληνικού οίνου πιθανότητα διαδραματίζει η βελτίωση των τεχνικών οινοποίησης αλλά και η αποτελεσματική εφαρμογή των μέτρων αντιμετώπισης που υιοθετούν οι παραγωγοί.

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