Investigating the impact of land cover changes on European climate with regional climate model simulations = Μελέτη των επιπτώσεων της αλλαγής κάλυψης Γης στο κλίμα της Ευρώπης με χρήση  περιοχικού κλιματικού μοντέλου.

Ioannis Andreas Sofiadis

Investigating the impact of land cover changes on European climate with regional climate model simulations = Μελέτη των επιπτώσεων της αλλαγής κάλυψης Γης στο κλίμα της Ευρώπης με χρήση περιοχικού κλιματικού μοντέλου.

Ioannis Andreas Sofiadis

Περίληψη

The current doctoral dissertation is focused on the biophysical impact of land cover and land use change on regional climate in Europe, with the use of regional climate simulations. The WRF regional climate model is employed, driven by reanalysis data over Europe, while data from other climate models are also analyzed, which applied the same experimental design within the framework of Euro-CORDEX. In the first phase, the WRF simulations are evaluated to assess their ability to represent adequately the physical processes that take place between the ground and atmosphere. The simulations are compared to observational data for temperature, precipitation, radiation and heat fluxes, cloudiness and soil moisture. In the second phase, two idealized land cover maps are implemented into climate models, in which Europe is represented as fully covered by forest or grass, in order to examine the biophysical impact of land cover changes on soil temperature in Europe at regional scale. The consequences on soil temperature are investigated through the changes in surface energy balance and soil moisture. Furthermore, observational soil temperature data from FLUXNET network are analyzed, in order to assess the reliability of information that is delivered by models. In the third phase, two WRF simulations are compared, in which the land cover map of 1950 and 2015 is implemented respectively, with the aim to investigate the potential climate impact of recent land cover changes in Europe. Specifically, the changes in surface energy balance, temperature and precipitation are analyzed. The innovation of this study is that for first time climatic information is delivered by an ensemble of regional climate models about the biophysical consequences of land cover changes over Europe at regional scale. This information could help people involved in decision-making for climate change adaptation, since forestation is being promoted as a land-based mitigation strategy for reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in atmosphere.

Η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή επικεντρώνεται στις βιοφυσικές επιπτώσεις των αλλαγών κάλυψης και χρήσης γης στο περιοχικό κλίμα της Ευρώπης, με τη χρήση κλιματικών προσομοιώσεων. Οι προσομοιώσεις εκτελούνται με το κλιματικό μοντέλο WRF, οδηγούμενο από δεδομένα επανάλυσης πάνω από την Ευρώπη, ενώ για την ανάλυση περιλαμβάνονται δεδομένα από προσομοιώσεις και άλλων κλιματικών μοντέλων, που εφάρμοσαν το ίδιο πειραματικό σχέδιο στο πλαίσιο δράσης του Euro-CORDEX. Σε πρώτο στάδιο, αξιολογήθηκαν οι προσομοιώσεις με WRF ως προς την ικανότητα τους να αναπαριστήσουν επαρκώς τις πραγματικές κλιματικές διεργασίες που συμβαίνουν μεταξύ της επιφάνειας του εδάφους και της ατμόσφαιρας. Οι προσομοιώσεις συγκρίθηκαν με δεδομένα παρατήρησης για τη θερμοκρασία, τον υετό, τις ροές θερμότητας και ακτινοβολίας, τη νέφωση και την υγρασία εδάφους. Σε δεύτερο στάδιο, δύο ιδεατοί χάρτες εφαρμόζονται στα μοντέλα, όπου η Ευρώπη είναι πλήρως καλυμμένη με δάσος ή γρασίδι, προκειμένου να εξεταστούν οι βιοφυσικές επιπτώσεις των αλλαγών χρήσης και κάλυψης γης στη θερμοκρασία εδάφους στην Ευρώπη σε περιοχική κλίμακα. Οι επιπτώσεις στην θερμοκρασία εδάφους ερευνώνται υπό το πρίσμα των αλλαγών στο ενεργειακό ισοζύγιο στην επιφάνεια και την υγρασία εδάφους. Επιπρόσθετα, χρησιμοποιούνται δεδομένα θερμοκρασίας εδάφους από το δίκτυο σταθμών FLUXNET, ώστε να αξιολογηθεί η πληροφορία που μεταφέρεται από τα κλιματικά μοντέλα. Σε τρίτο στάδιο, συγκρίνονται δύο προσομοιώσεις με WRF για την περίοδο 1986-2015, όπου στη μία εφαρμόζεται ένας πραγματικός χάρτης κάλυψης γης για το έτος 1950 και στην άλλη ο χάρτης κάλυψης του εδάφους για το 2015, με σκοπό να εξεταστούν οι πιθανές κλιματικές επιπτώσεις των πρόσφατων αλλαγών κάλυψης γης πάνω από την Ευρώπη. Συγκεκριμένα, εξετάζονται οι αλλαγές στο ενεργειακό ισοζύγιο στην επιφάνεια του εδάφους, τη θερμοκρασία και τον υετό. Η καινοτομία της διδακτορικής διατριβής είναι ότι για πρώτη φορά μεταφέρεται κλιματική πληροφορία για τις βιοφυσικές επιπτώσεις των αλλαγών χρήσης και κάλυψης γης πάνω από την Ευρώπη, από σμήνος κλιματικών προσομοιώσεων σε περιοχική κλίμακα. Η πληροφορία αυτή μπορεί να βοηθήσει τους αρμόδιους για την πολιτική αντιμετώπισης της κλιματικής αλλαγής, σε μία εποχή που η αναδάσωση προτείνεται ως μία στρατηγική μετριασμού των ανθρωπογενών θερμοκηπικών αερίων στην ατμόσφαιρα.

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