Μεθοδολογίες εκτίμησης κόστους πετρελαιοκηλίδων = Oil spill cost estimation methodologies.

Δημήτριος Βασίλειος Μπαλντούμης

Μεθοδολογίες εκτίμησης κόστους πετρελαιοκηλίδων = Oil spill cost estimation methodologies.

Δημήτριος Βασίλειος Μπαλντούμης

Περίληψη

Στόχος της παρούσας διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι ο προσδιορισμός μεθόδων εκτίμησης του κόστους πετρελαιοκηλίδων. Οι πετρελαιοκηλίδες στο θαλάσσιο περιβάλλον προκαλούν καταστροφικές συνέπειες σε πολλαπλά επίπεδα, κάτι που επιβεβαιώνεται και μέσω αναφορών σε περιστατικά που πήραν μεγάλη έκταση. Η εκτίμηση κόστους πετρελαιοκηλίδας περιλαμβάνει πολλές παραμέτρους που είναι απαραίτητο να συνυπολογιστούν ώστε το αποτέλεσμα να είναι όσο πιο κοντά στο άρτιο γίνεται. Οι παράμετροι αφορούν χαρακτηριστικά και λεπτομέρειες του εκάστοτε ατυχήματος, κριτήρια αποδοχής κοινωνικού ρίσκου, καθώς και τρόπους που επιλέγονται για την αποκατάσταση των ατυχημάτων. Ως μέσο εκτιμήσεων θα παρουσιαστούν τα μοντέλα EPA BOSCEM και OSRCEAT. Τα μοντέλα αυτά, αφού αναλυθούν ως προς τη μεθοδολογική τους προσέγγιση και τις παραμέτρους τους, θα εφαρμοστούν ενδεικτικά για την εκτίμηση κόστους της πετρελαιοκηλίδας που δημιουργήθηκε από το ατύχημα στην εξέδρα εξόρυξης πετρελαίου στον κόλπο Μεξικού το 1979. Τέλος, η εργασία θα ολοκληρωθεί με ορισμένα συμπεράσματα αναφορικά με όσα αναλύθηκαν παραπάνω.

The aim of this thesis is to identify methods for estimating the cost of oil spills. Oil spills in the marine environment cause catastrophic consequences on multiple levels, which is confirmed through reports of incidents that have taken place on a large scale. Oil spill cost estimation involves many parameters that need to be taken into account in order for the result to be as close to even as possible. The parameters relate to the characteristics and details of the accident in question, social risk acceptance criteria, as well as the methods chosen for oil spill remediation. The EPA BOSCEM and OSRCEAT models will be presented as a means of estimation. These models, after being analyzed and their methodologies given, will be applied to estimate the cost of the oil spill created by the 1979 Gulf of Mexico oil rig accident. Finally, the thesis will conclude with some conclusions regarding what has been analyzed above.

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Αναφορές

Ξένη βιβλιογραφία

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