Καύσωνες στην Κύπρο: Διερεύνηση της συσχέτισης των επεισοδίων καύσωνα με το θερμικό στρες και την δημόσια υγεία = Heat Waves in Cyprus: Exploring the association of heat waves with heat stress and public health.
Περίληψη
Heatwaves during the summer months are a common characteristic of countries with a Mediterranean climate, such as Cyprus and Greece. However, within the context of anthropogenic climate change, the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves in the broader Eastern Mediterranean region have significantly increased in recent decades, particularly since 1990. This has resulted in more stressful bioclimatic conditions, as indicated by numerous studies. Concurrently, future climate predictions suggest that the heatwaves observed in the early 21st century, once considered extreme, will become the norm in the coming years. This study confirms the rise in temperatures in Cyprus over the last 40 years. Heatwaves are defined as days where both maximum and minimum temperatures exceed the 95th percentile for the period 2000–2019. Using this criterion, a climatological analysis of heatwave events in the Cyprus region was conducted, while the thermal stress was studied through the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). This index provides a comprehensive assessment of human thermal discomfort caused by the thermal environment. The data utilized for this purpose included temperature data from the ERA5 – Land database and UTCI bioclimatic index data from the ERA5 – HEAT database. Additionally, the correlation of UTCI with health data, including mortality and hospitalizations from eight public hospitals in Cyprus, was examined based on statistics from the Cyprus Statistical Service and the Public Health Service of the Ministry of Health, respectively. Lastly by using the statistical methodology of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), the risk of mortality and morbidity was estimated based on maximum and minimum temperatures and the UTCI index for a lag of 20 days. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in the risk of mortality and morbidity at lower temperatures compared to higher temperatures.
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