Μελέτη της σύνδεσης των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων με τη σχέση Clausius-Clapeyron: η περίπτωση της Θεσσαλονίκης, Ελλάδα = The link of extreme precipitation with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation: The case study of Thessaloniki, Greece.

Αλέξανδρος Κυριάκος Παπαδόπουλος-Ζάχος

Μελέτη της σύνδεσης των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων με τη σχέση Clausius-Clapeyron: η περίπτωση της Θεσσαλονίκης, Ελλάδα = The link of extreme precipitation with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation: The case study of Thessaloniki, Greece.

Αλέξανδρος Κυριάκος Παπαδόπουλος-Ζάχος

Περίληψη

Η κλιματική αλλαγή αποτελεί ένα από τα σημαντικότερα ζητήματα του 21ου αιώνα παγκοσμίως. Ένα από τα άμεσα αποτελέσματα της είναι η αύξηση στη συχνότητα και την ένταση των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων που παρατηρείται σε πολλές περιοχές του πλανήτη. Το γεγονός αυτό έχει πολύ μεγάλες επιπτώσεις σε κοινωνικό και οικονομικό επίπεδο για τις πληγείσες περιοχές (πλημμυρικά φαινόμενα, απώλεια ανθρώπινων ζωών, καταστροφή υποδομών κ.α.). Οι μελλοντικές τάσεις δείχνουν περαιτέρω ενίσχυση των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων στο δεύτερο μισό του αιώνα καθιστώντας την ανάγκη για έγκαιρη και έγκυρη πρόβλεψη των φαινομένων αυτών πιο επιτακτική από ποτέ. Ωστόσο, παρά την πολύ μεγάλη τεχνολογική ανάπτυξη των μετεωρολογικών και κλιματικών μοντέλων κατά τα τελευταία χρόνια, τα οποία είναι σε θέση να παρέχουν πλέον πολύ υψηλής ακρίβειας αποτελέσματα για τις διάφορες μετεωρολογικές παραμέτρους, αυτά παρουσιάζουν ακόμα σημαντικό πρόβλημα στο να εντοπίζουν τις ακραίες τιμές και ιδιαίτερα όσον αφορά την παράμετρο της βροχόπτωσης. Στόχος της παρούσας εργασίας είναι η κλιματολογική μελέτη των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων στην περιοχή της Θεσσαλονίκης και η διερεύνηση της ευαισθησίας που εμφανίζουν αυτές σε σχέση με τη θερμοκρασία βάση της σχέσης Clausius-Clapeyron (CC). Εν συνεχεία μελετάται η ικανότητα των δεδομένων reanalysis καθώς και των κλιματικών και μετεωρολογικών μοντέλων στον εντοπισμό των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων και επιχειρείται η χρήση των σχέσεων βροχόπτωσης-θερμοκρασίας με στόχο την βελτίωση των αποτελεσμάτων αυτών. Τα αποτελέσματα της εργασίας έχουν ιδιαίτερη σημασία για την βελτίωση της ικανότητας εκτίμησης (κλιματολογικά) και πρόγνωσης (μετεωρολογικά) των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων καθώς και των παραμέτρων σχεδιασμού των υποδομών που είναι ευάλωτες στις πλημμύρες με στόχο την πρόληψη έναντι των ακραίων φαινομένων.

Climate change is one of the most important issues of the 21st century worldwide. One of its direct effects is the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events observed in many world regions. This has very significant social and economic consequences for the affected areas (flooding, loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, etc.). Future trends indicate further intensification of extreme rainfall events in the second half of the century, making the need for timely and accurate forecasting of these events more urgent than ever. However, despite the very large technological development of meteorological and climate models in recent years, which are now able to provide very high accuracy results for various meteorological parameters, they still have a significant problem in detecting extreme values, especially for the precipitation parameter. The aim of the present thesis is the climatological study of extreme precipitation events in the region of Thessaloniki and the investigation of their sensitivity to temperature based on the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship. Subsequently, the ability of reanalysis data and climate and meteorological models in the detection of extreme precipitation is studied and the use of rainfall-temperature relations is tested in order to improve these results. The findings of this work are of particular importance in improving the ability to estimate (climatologically) and forecast (meteorologically) extreme rainfall events as well as the design parameters of flood-prone infrastructures in order to prevent against extreme events.

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