Comparing probabilistic seismic hazard maps with ShakeMap footprints and strong motion records in Greece = Σύγκριση πιθανολογικών χαρτών σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας, χαρτών ShakeMap και καταγραφών ισχυρής σεισμικής κίνησης στην Ελλάδα.

Nikolaos Miltiadis Anterriotis - Kalpakidis

Comparing probabilistic seismic hazard maps with ShakeMap footprints and strong motion records in Greece = Σύγκριση πιθανολογικών χαρτών σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας, χαρτών ShakeMap και καταγραφών ισχυρής σεισμικής κίνησης στην Ελλάδα.

Nikolaos Miltiadis Anterriotis - Kalpakidis

Περίληψη

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) maps provide estimates of the likelihood and intensity of ground shaking, usually expressed in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) or Spectral Acceleration (Sa) at different periods, due to potential earthquakes, over a specific time. These maps are a vital tool for assessing earthquake engineering requirements. This study evaluates the performance of four PSHA maps for Greece —ESHM20, ESHM13, GSHAP, and the national seismic hazard map of Greece (EAK2000)— all designed for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are compared against observational data from ShakeMap footprints, strongmotion records, and historical macroseismic intensities to assess their reliability. We analyzed intensity measures (IMs) such as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations at 0.3s, 1.0s, and 3.0s, derived from ShakeMaps spanning January 1973 to January 2023. Sites where observed IMs exceeded those predicted by the PSHA maps were identified, and fractional exceedance areas were calculated to compare these exceedances with the 10% probability target. EAK2000 showed the closest fit to this target, with all maps displaying reasonable alignment overall. In addition to general site comparisons, specific regions of interest, including urban areas in Greece, were analyzed and compared with results from Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). Strong-motion data was further examined to determine how many seismic stations were expected to exceed the predicted thresholds and compared these results to observed station exceedances. Additionally, historical macroseismic data was used to estimate PGA through ground-motion intensity conversion equations (GMICEs), allowing for the identification of regions with higher-than-expected seismic activity. Our findings highlight areas where the expected levels of ground motion were considerably exceeded during earthquakes and also provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of PSHA models in Greece. These results contribute to the ongoing development of more accurate seismic hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies specific to the region. This thesis is structured in five chapters: In the first chapter, an introduction is provided to probabilistic seismic hazard maps, as well as a review of the four maps studied alongside, a review of the methodologies and results from similar studies. In the second chapter, the data for each of the three methods is described. The completeness of the data is discussed, along with the uncertainties present in the ShakeMap charts, as well as in the calculation of macroseismic intensities from historical earthquakes. In the third chapter, the methodology followed to retrieve the maximum ground acceleration values for the corresponding observation periods is described, as well as how the influence of local ground conditions was addressed and the calculation of the expected exceedance rates for the seismic hazard maps. In the fourth chapter, the results for each method are presented, and limitations and uncertainties that may exist in the results are discussed, mainly due to the limited availability of data. Finally, in the fifth chapter, the conclusions of the study are summarized.

Οι Πιθανολογικοί Χάρτες Σεισµικής Επικινδυνότητας (PSHA) παρέχουν εκτιµήσεις σχετικά µε την πιθανότητα και την ένταση της σεισµικής κίνησης, συνήθως εκφρασµένες σε όρους Μέγιστης Εδαφικής Επιτάχυνσης (PGA) ή Φασµατικής Επιτάχυνσης (Sa) σε διαφορετικές περιόδους, λόγω πιθανών σεισµικών γεγονότων, για ένα συγκεκριµένο χρονικό διάστηµα. Αυτοί οι χάρτες είναι ζωτικής σηµασίας για την αξιολόγηση των απαιτήσεων της αντισεισµικής µηχανικής. Η παρούσα µελέτη αξιολογεί την απόδοση τεσσάρων PSHA χαρτών για την Ελλάδα —ESHM20, ESHM13, GSHAP και τον εθνικό χάρτη σεισµικής επικινδυνότητας της Ελλάδας (ΕΑΚ2000)— οι οποίοι έχουν σχεδιαστεί για πιθανότητα υπέρβασης 10% σε 50 χρόνια. Τα προβλεπόµενα επίπεδα της σεισµικής κίνησης από αυτούς τους χάρτες PSHA συγκρίνονται µε πραγµατικές παρατηρήσεις από χάρτες ShakeMap, καταγραφές ισχυρής εδαφικής κίνησης και ιστορικές µακροσεισµικές εντάσεις για την αξιολόγηση της αξιοπιστίας τους. Αναλύσαµε µέτρα έντασης (IMs), όπως η Μέγιστη Εδαφική Επιτάχυνση (PGA) και ϕασµατικές επιταχύνσεις στα 0.3s, 1.0s και 3.0s, που προέρχονται από χάρτες ShakeMap για την περίοδο από τον Ιανουάριο 1973 έως τον Ιανουάριο 2023. Εντοπίστηκαν περιοχές όπου τα παρατηρούµενα IMs υπερέβαιναν τις προβλεπόµενες τιµές από τους χάρτες PSHA, και υπολογίστηκαν οι περιοχές υπέρβασης, ώστε αυτές οι υπερβάσεις να συκριθούν µε τον στόχο του 10%. Ο χάρτης ΕΑΚ2000 εµφάνισε την πιο ακριβή προσέγγιση στον στόχο, ενώ όλοι οι χάρτες έδειξαν γενικά καλή προσαρµογή. Επιπλέον, εφαρµόσαµε την ίδια διαδικασία για συγκεκριµένες περιοχές ενδιαφέροντος, συµπεριλαµβανοµένων αστικών περιοχών στην Ελλάδα, και τα αποτελέσµατα συγκρίθηκαν µε αυτά που προέκυψαν από Εξισώσεις Πρόβλεψης Εδαφικής Κίνησης (GMPEs). Τα δεδοµένα ισχυρής εδαφικής κίνησης εξετάστηκαν περαιτέρω για να προσδιοριστεί πόσοι σεισµολογικοί σταθµοί αναµένεται να υπερβούν τα προβλεπόµενα όρια και συγκρίθηκαν αυτά τα αποτελέσµατα µε τις παρατηρήσεις των σταθµών. Επιπλέον, χρησιµοποιήθηκαν ιστορικά µακροσεισµικά δεδοµένα για την εκτίµηση της PGA µέσω εξισώσεων µετατροπής της έντασης (GMICEs), επιτρέποντας τον εντοπισµό περιοχών µε υψηλότερη σεισµική δραστηϱιότητα από την αναµενόµενη. Τα ευρήµατά µας, καταρχάς αναδεικνύουν περιοχές για τις οποίες έχει παϱατηρηθεί υπέρβαση των προβλέψεων των χαρτών και επιπρόσθετα αναδεικνύουν τις αβεβαιότητες που υπεισέρχονται στην εκτίµηση της σεισµικής επικινδυνότητας στην Ελλάδα από τα µέχρι σήµερα επικρατέστερα µοντέλα. Η διατριβή έχει πέντε κεφάλαια: Στο πρώτο κεφάλαιο γίνεται µία εισαγωγή στους πιθανολογικούς χάρτες σεισµικής επικινδυνότητας, καθώς και µία ανασκόπηση των τεσσάρων χαρτών που µελετιούνται στην εργασία. Τέλος, γίνεται µια ανασκόπηση των µεθοδολογιών και των αποτελεσµάτων από παρόµοιες εργασίες. Στο δεύτερο κεφάλαιο περιγράφονται τα δεδοµένα για κάθε µία από τις τρείς µεθόδους. Σχολιάζεται η πληρότητα τους, καθώς οι αβεβαιότητες που υπάρχουν στους χάρτες ShakeMap, όπως και στον υπολογισµό των µακροσεισµικών εντάσεων από τους ιστορικούς σεισµούς. Στο τρίτο κεφάλαιο περιγράφεται η µεθοδολογία που ακολουθήθηκε ώστε να ανακτηθούν οι µέγιστες τιµές της εδαφικής επιτάχυνσης για τις αντίστοιχες πεϱιόδους παρατήρησης, ο τρόπος που αντιµετωπίστηκε η επίδραση των τοπικών εδαφικών συνθηκών, καθώς και ο υπολογισµός των αναµενόµενων ποσοστών υπερβάσεων για τους χάρτες σεισµικής επικινδυνότητας. Στο τέταρτο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζονται τα αποτελέσµατα για κάθε µέθοδο και συζητιούνται περιορισµοί και αβεβαιότητες που µπορεί να υπάρχουν στα αποτελέσµατα κυρίως λόγω των περιορισµένων διαθέσιµων δεδοµένων. Τέλος, στο πέµπτο κεφάλαιο συνοψίζονται τα συµπεράσµατα της εργασίας.

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