Δυνητικότητα εφαρμογής προγραμμάτων αύξησης βροχής στην περιοχή της Κύπρου = Potentiality of rain enhancement programs in the area of Cyprus.

Παναγιώτης Χαράλαμπος Μούσκος


Ο στόχος αυτής της διατριβής ήταν να διερευνηθεί κατά πόσον η περιοχή της Κύπρου προσφέρεται για την εφαρμογή προγραμμάτων τροποποίησης καιρού με στόχο την αύξηση της βροχόπτωσης. Αρχικά αναφέρονται γενικά και κλιματολογικά στοιχεία για την περιοχή ενδιαφέροντος και στη συνέχεια γίνεται μια ιστορική αναφορά στις φυσικές έννοιες της σποράς νεφών για την αύξηση της βροχόπτωσης καθώς και σε προγράμματα στατικού και δυναμικού τρόπου σποράς νεφών, τα οποία διενεργήθηκαν σε διάφορες περιοχές του πλανήτη, ώστε να βρεθεί η επίδραση της τροποποίησης στα νέφη και στην βροχόπτωση που παράγουν. Ακολούθως εξετάζονται οι συνθήκες ξηρασίας μέσω του δείκτη PDSI με δεδομένα από έξι σταθμούς σε παραθαλάσσιες, πεδινές και ορεινές περιοχές της Κύπρου και υπολογίζεται η τιμή του δείκτη PDSI για τον κάθε ένα από αυτούς. Η τάση του δείκτη στους πλείστους σταθμούς εμφανίζεται να τείνει προς ελαφρώς πιο ξηρές μελλοντικές καταστάσεις, κάτι που είναι σε συμφωνία με τις περισσότερες εκτιμήσεις για την περιοχή της Ανατολικής Μεσογείου. Στη συνέχεια γίνεται μια ανάλυση και ταξινόμηση για δέκα χρόνια (2000-2009) των συνοπτικών τύπων κυκλοφορίας που επηρέασαν την περιοχή και χαρακτηρίζονται από ασταθείς καιρικές συνθήκες. Επίσης γίνεται σύνδεση τους με την βροχόπτωση που καταγράφηκε σε 37 σταθμούς και την εμφάνιση νεφών έντονης κατακόρυφης ανάπτυξης και καταιγίδων όταν η περιοχή επηρεαζόταν από ένα από τους επτά τύπους κυκλοφορίας. Τα δεδομένα της βροχόπτωσης χρησιμοποιήθηκαν και για τον υπολογισμό μιας συνάρτησης η οποία μπορεί να χρησιμοποιηθεί ως προγνωστικό εργαλείο. Μέσω της μεθόδου πολλαπλής παλινδρόμησης κατασκευάστηκε μια συνάρτηση εκτίμησης της βροχόπτωσης για τον κάθε τύπο ξεχωριστά. Τα συμπεράσματα της μελέτης δείχνουν ένα πρόγραμμα τροποποίησης καιρού μπορεί να εφαρμοστεί, έστω και δοκιμαστικά, καθώς η περιοχή επηρεάζεται από συστήματα που έχουν τη δυνατότητα να δώσουν βροχές, περίπου στις μισές μέρες του έτους. Παρόλα αυτά, η εφαρμογή ενός προγράμματος θα πρέπει πρώτα να αναλυθεί τεχνοοικονομικά, ώστε να αποδειχθεί ότι τα πολλά οφέλη της βροχής μπορούν να ληφθούν με επιτρεπτό κόστος.

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate whether the area of Cyprus has the potentiality for the application of weather modification programs for rain enhancement. At first an introduction to the area of interest is being made including some climatological data and then follows a historical report for the physical hypotheses of cloud seeding as well as a listing of several experiments of static and dynamic seeding mode, that were conducted in various areas of the planet to find the effect of weather modification on clouds and their production of rainfall. An investigation of drought conditions follows, with the application of the PDSI index for six stations over coastal, lowland and mountainous areas of Cyprus and a calculation for each one of them is being made. The index trend for the future for most of them, appears to be towards mild drought conditions, a result that is in accordance with most of the estimations for the area of the Eastern Mediterranean. A ten-year period (2000-2009) is being examined for the synoptic circulation types that are characterized from unstable weather conditions and that affected the area. A classification of the types is constructed and also a correlation with the rainfall from 37 meteorological stations as well as the convective activity for each type is presented. The rainfall data were used for the development of a formula that could be used as a forecasting tool. The multiple regression method is applied and formulas that estimate the expected rain is developed for each one of the synoptic types. It is concluded that a rain enhancement program could experimentally be applied, since the area of interest is being affected with systems that have the potential of producing rain for almost half of the days in a year. Nevertheless, such an application should primarily be examined techno-economically so that the benefits of rain come at an affordable cost.

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