[Εξώφυλλο]

Συμβολή στη μελέτη της σεισμικότητας, της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας και της ενεργού τεκτονικής στο Ν. Αιγαίο = Study of the seismicity, seismic hazard and active tectonics in the Southern Aegean area

Χαράλαμπος Ανδρέας Κκάλλας

Περίληψη


Στην παρούσα διατριβή μελετήθηκε το πεδίο στην ευρύτερη περιοχή του Νοτίου Αιγαίου χρησιμοποιώντας όλους τους διαθέσιμους μηχανισμούς γένεσης, χρησιμοποιώντας διαφορετικές τεχνικές αντιστροφής. Η περιοχή μελέτης χαρακτηρίζεται από υψηλή σεισμικότητα αφού επανειλημμένα  έχουν συμβεί μεγάλοι σεισμοί (επιφανειακοί και ενδιάμεσου βάθους) (έως και Μ ~ 8.0). Ένας μεγαλύτερος αριθμός διαθέσιμων μηχανισμών γένεσης  που έχει συλλεχτεί για το Νότιο Αιγαίο αποτέλεσε τη βάση για τη λεπτομερή μελέτη της χωρικής κατανομής του ενεργού πεδίου τάσεων χρησιμοποιώντας τις πληροφορίες που παρέχονται από τους άξονες P και T των μηχανισμών γένεσης. Το σύνολο των δεδομένων συμπληρώνεται με τη αξιοποίηση επιπλέον μηχανισμών γένεσης που υπολογίζονται στο πλαίσιο αυτής της μελέτης. Το πεδίο των τάσεων μελετήθηκε χρησιμοποιώντας τρεις αλγορίθμους, καθώς και μια προσαρμοσμένη μέθοδο που προτείνεται σε αυτή τη μελέτη, με βάση τη στατιστική επεξεργασία των λύσεων που παρέχονται από τη μέθοδο Gephart και Forsyth (1984). Τα αποτελέσματα που προέκυψαν από όλες τις μεθόδους δείχνουν ότι η μέθοδος Gephart και Forsyth εμφανίζει συστηματικά τη μεγαλύτερη απόκλιση σε σύγκριση με τις άλλες προσεγγίσεις. Το πεδίο των τάσεων που έχει υπολογιστεί δείχνει παρόμοια σεισμοτεκτονικά χαρακτηριστικά με προηγούμενες μελέτες, αναγνωρίζοντας πέντε τύπους ρηγμάτων και πεδία τάσεων στον χώρο του Ν. Αιγαίου, και ειδικότερα:
α) Ανάστροφα ρήγματα που υπάρχουν στην περιοχή του Ελληνικού τόξου σε βάθη 0-60Km, με την κύρια διεύθυνση των αξόνων συμπίεσης (P-άξονες) να είναι κάθετη στην γενική διεύθυνση του τόξου στις δυτικές και κεντρικές περιοχές του τόξου, ενώ στις ανατολικές περιοχές (π.χ. Ρόδος) η διεύθυνση αυτή συμπίπτει με την διεύθυνση του Ελληνικού τόξου.
β) Κανονικά ρήγματα σε βάθη 0-30km με άξονες εφελκυσμού (T-άξονες) με διεύθυνση ~Β-Ν σχεδόν κάθετη με την γενική διεύθυνση του ηφαιστειακού τόξου.
γ) Κανονικά ρήγματα σε βάθη 0-30Km στην περιοχή του εξωτερικού ιζηματογενές τόξου με τους άξονες εφελκυσμού (T-άξονες) να έχουν ~Α-Δ διεύθυνση.
δ) Ρήγματα οριζόντιας μετατόπισης με σημαντική ανάστροφη συνιστώσα που συνδέονται με τους ενδιάμεσου βάθους σεισμούς κατά μήκος της καταδυόμενης ζώνης Benioff. Τα βάθη των σεισμών αυτών αυξάνουν από το βάθος των ~50km κοντά στην Κρήτη και στα Κύθηρα μέχρι το βάθος των ~100-120km στην περιοχή του ηφαιστειακού τόξου
ε) Ρήγματα οριζόντιας μετατόπισης που επικρατούν κυρίως στην περιοχή του NA τμήματος του Ελληνικού τόξου σε βάθος μέχρι τα 60km.
Στην συνέχεια χρησιμοποιήθηκε η στοχαστική μέθοδος πεπερασμένων πηγών με την χρήση δυναμικής γωνιακής συχνότητας και εφαρμόστηκε στους σεισμούς ενδιαμέσου βάθους του Νοτίου Αιγαίου με την χρήση του λογισμικού EXSIM (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005; Boore, 2009). Για την παραμετρική διερεύνηση χρησιμοποιήσαμε ενόργανα δεδομένα (κυματομορφές), τόσο από επιταχυνσιογράφους, όσο και από σεισμόμετρα ευρέος φάσματος (ταχύτητας) για σεισμούς ενδιάμεσου βάθους (βάθη ~45-140 Km) και μεγέθη στο εύρος μεταξύ Μ=4.5-6.7 που συνέβησαν κατά μήκος της Ζώνης Wadati-Benioff του Νότιου Αιγαίου. Η ανελαστική απόσβεση που έχει χρησιμοποιηθεί στην διατριβή αυτή υιοθετήθηκε από την εργασία των  Skarlatoudis et al. (2013) και αντιστοιχεί σε δυο μεγάλες κατηγορίες σεισμών: α) στους σεισμούς που βρίσκονται στην οπισθότοξη περιοχή με βάθη ≥60km και, β) στους σεισμούς που βρίσκονται κατά μήκος του εξωτερικού Ελληνικού τόξου με τα βάθη τους να κυμαίνονται από 45-60km. Στην παρούσα εργασία χρησιμοποιήθηκαν  οι φασματικές κλίσεις της επιτάχυνσης (τιμές κ) από την εργασία της Ventouzi et al. (2013), οι οποίες προέρχονται από διάφορους σταθμούς καταγραφής και υποκεντρικές αποστάσεις και οι οποίες υπολογίστηκαν από την ανάλυση μεγάλου αριθμού σεισμών από το προσωρινό δίκτυο EGELADOS. Λόγω της έλλειψης πληροφοριών που αφορούν τις εδαφικές συνθήκες, χρησιμοποιήθηκαν γενικευμένες φασματικές ενισχύσεις (NEHRP, 1994; Klimis, 1999) για την περιοχή του Νοτιου Αιγαίου. Η τιμή της παραμέτρου τάσης (Δσ) εξετάστηκε με τη μέθοδο της «δοκιμής και απόρριψης» (trial and error), για όλους τους σεισμούς της διατριβής. Με βάση τις υπολογισμένες τιμές της πτώσης τάσης είναι εμφανές ότι για τους σεισμούς ενδιάμεσου βάθους με μεγέθη Mw>6.0, οι αντίστοιχες τιμές της είναι  > 300bars. Με βάση τα αποτελέσματα που προέκυψαν πρέπει να ληφθεί υπόψη ότι η προτεινόμενη μεθοδολογία με βάση την βαθμονόμηση των παραμέτρων μπορεί να χρησιμοποιηθεί για ρεαλιστικές «τυφλές» προβλέψεις, τόσο για μελλοντικούς, όσο και για ιστορικούς σεισμούς στην ίδια περιοχή.
Η μέθοδος της στοχαστικής προσομοίωσης με το μοντέλο πεπερασμένων διαστάσεων εφαρμόστηκε για την προσομοίωση τεσσάρων σημαντικών ιστορικών σεισμών ενδιαμέσου βάθους για τους οποίους ήταν διαθέσιμες μόνο μακροσεισμικές εντάσεις.  Παράμετροι όπως οι διαστάσεις των ρηγμάτων, η παράμετρος τάσης και η ανελαστική απόσβεση έχουν χρησιμοποιηθεί στην προσομοίωση των ιστορικών σεισμών ενδιάμεσου βάθους. Αρχικά υπολογίστηκαν κατάλληλες σχέσεις για τη μετατροπή των τιμών PGA και PGV σε μακροσεισμικές εντάσεις για τους σεισμούς ενδιαμέσου βάθους του Νοτίου Αιγαίου. Επίσης, η καλή συσχέτιση της βαθμίδας της τοπογραφίας με τις τιμές των Vs30 αξιοποιήθηκε για τον καθορισμό της προσεγγιστικής επίδρασης των τοπικών εδαφικών συνθηκών σε περιοχές που υπάρχουν διαθέσιμα μακροσεισμικά δεδομένα. Από την σύγκριση των παρατηρημένων μακροσεισμικών εντάσεων με τα  αποτελέσματα από την στοχαστική προσομοίωση (EXSIM) φαίνεται η καλή συμφωνία που υπάρχει, επιβεβαιώνοντας την καλή προσέγγιση των παραμέτρων που υπολογιστήκαν. Με σκοπό  να ερευνήσουμε τις πιθανές επιπτώσεις άλλων μεγάλων σεισμών ενδιάμεσου βάθους στην περιοχή του νότιου Αιγαίου, παρουσιάζουμε επιπρόσθετα αποτελέσματα από σενάρια προβλέψεων για δύο επιλεγμένες περιοχές όπου αρκετοί μεγάλοι ιστορικοί σεισμοί έχουν προκαλέσει σοβαρές ζημιές και καταστροφές με μεγάλες εντάσεις (IMM > 6) να παρατηρούνται σε ολόκληρη την περιοχή του κεντρικού και ανατολικού εξωτερικού τόξου, όπως την Κρήτη (π.χ. Ηράκλειο), σε πολύ καλή συμφωνία με τις διαθέσιμες παρατηρημένες μακροσεισμικές εντάσεις.
Λέξεις κλειδιά: Μηχανισμοί γένεσης; Ν. Αιγαίο; Στοχαστική προσομοίωση; Ιστορικοί σεισμοί

We examine the active stress field in the broader southern Aegean Sea subduction area from fault plane solution data, focusing on the results from the application of different stress inversion methods. The study area is characterized by high seismicity levels and has been struck repeatedly by large destructive shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes (up to M~8.0). A larger number of previously published Fault Plane Solutions (FPS) were collected and evaluated for the Southern Aegean Sea, providing the basis for a detailed study of the spatial distribution of the active stress field, using the information provided by the P and T axes of the FPS data. This dataset is complemented by including additional FPS computed in the framework of this study. The active stress field is examined using three well-established algorithms, as well as an adapted method proposed in this study, based on the statistical processing of solutions provided by the Gephart and Forsyth (1984) method. The results obtained from all methods show a systematic consistency, with the Gephart and Forsyth method exhibiting the largest discrepancy in comparison to other approaches. The determined active stress field reveals several domains with similar seismotectonic characteristics:
a) Along the volcanic arc, the dominant ~N-S extension field shows an excellent correlation with the arc geometry (arc-normal extension).
b) The outer arc is characterized by compression, as a result of the active subduction, with an almost constant NE-SW direction.
c) Between these two regions, a narrow zone with dominant ~EW extension develops along the whole Hellenic Arc, with subtle spatial differences.
d) In the eastern Hellenic Arc, a well-developed strike-slip faulting pattern is recognized along the broader area of the Pliny and Strabo trenches.
e) Finally, all intermediate-depth events show the same transpressional pattern, with a characteristic down-dip extension along the subduction direction and an arc-parallel compression, which follows the local arc orientation.  
We employ the stochastic finite-fault modelling approach of Motazedian and Atkinson (2005), as adapted by Boore (2009), for the simulation of Fourier Amplitude Spectra (FAS) of intermediate-depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean Sea subduction. To calibrate the necessary model parameters of the stochastic finite-fault method, we used waveform data from both acceleration and broadband-velocity sensor instruments for intermediate-depth earthquakes (depths ~45-140km) with M4.5-6.7 that occurred along the southern Aegean Sea Wadati-Benioff zone. The anelastic attenuation parameters employed for the simulations were adapted from recent studies, suggesting large back-arc/fore-arc attenuation differences. High-frequency spectral slopes (kappa values) were constrained from the analysis of a large number of earthquakes from the high-density EGELADOS temporary network. Due to the lack of site-specific information, generic site-amplification functions available for the Aegean Sea region were adopted. Using the previous source, path and site-effect constraints, we solved for the stress-parameter values by a trial-and-error approach, in an attempt to fit the FAS of the available intermediate-depth earthquakes waveforms. Despite the fact that most source, path and site model parameters are based on independent studies and a single source parameter (stress-parameter) is optimized, an excellent comparison between observations and simulations is found for both PGA, PGV and Fourier spectra values. The final stress-parameter values increase with moment magnitude, reaching large values (>300bar) for events M>6.0. Blind tests for events not used for the model calibration verify the good agreement of the simulated and observed ground motions for both back-arc and along-arc stations. The results suggest that the employed approach can be efficiently used for the modeling of large historical intermediate-depth earthquakes, as well as for seismic hazard assessment for similar intermediate-depth events in the southern Aegean Sea area.  
We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, IMM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of VS30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >100km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional "prediction" but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information.
Λέξεις κλειδιά: Focal mechanism solutions; S. Aegean; Stochastic simulation; Historical earthquakes


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