[Εξώφυλλο]

Study of seismicity properties based on the interaction and evolution of active fault systems in the Aegean and its surroundings = Μελέη των ιδιοτήτων της σεισμικότητας με βάση την αλληλεπίδραση και ανάπτυξη συστημάτων σεισμογόνων ρηγμάτων στον ευρύτερο χώρο του Αιγαίου.

Charikleia G. Gkarlaouni

Περίληψη


Στόχος της διατριβής είναι η μελέτη και ανάδειξη των δυναμικών και στοχαστικών χαρακτηριστικών δύο πληθυσμών σεισμογόνων ρηγμάτων του Ελλαδικού χώρου, η διερεύνηση της αλληλεξάρτησης και ποσοτικοποίηση του βαθμού αλληλεπίδρασης μεταξύ των ρηγμάτων όπως αποτυπώνεται στη σεισμική διαδικασία. Οι δύο περιοχές μελέτης είναι η Μυγδονία  λεκάνη και η λεκάνη του Κορινθιακού κόλπου. Η διατριβή αποτελείται από τρία επιμέρους ερευνητικά αντικείμενα τα οποία συμβάλλουν στην ολοκληρωμένη προσέγγιση του  στόχου. Η κατανομή των σεισμικών εστιών αποκαλύπτει πληροφορίες για την ανάπτυξη και τη γεωμετρία του σεισμοτεκτονικού ιστού. Για το λόγο αυτό πραγματοποιείται ο επαναπροσδιορισμός των παράμετρων της εστίας για τους πιο πρόσφατους σεισμούς. Συλλέγονται δεδομένα σεισμικότητας (αφίξεις ζευγών εγκαρσίων και επιμήκων σεισμικών κυμάτων)και χρησιμοποιούνται για την εφαρμογή της μεθοδολογίας Wadati, τον υπολογισμό χρονικών διορθώσεων των σεισμολογικών σταθμών και μαζί με τα μοντέλο ταχυτήτων, εισάγονται στο πρόγραμμα Hypoinverse και HypoDD. Η χρονική και χωρική κατανομή της σεισμικότητας δείχνει σημαντική μετανάστευση σεισμών μεταξύ των ρηγμάτων. Η  μικροσεισμικότητα δημιουργεί ομάδες οι οποίες συσχετίζονται μεταξύ τους και η αλληλεπίδραση αυτή υπερισχύει μεταξύ των κύριων δομών. Η διερεύνηση του σεισμογόνου όγκου και της γεωμετρίας των ρηγμάτων πραγματοποιείται με την υλοποίηση κατακόρυφων τομών σε διεύθυνση κάθετη στην επικρατούσα διεύθυνση των κύριων ρηγμάτων. Επόμενο στόχο της εργασίας αποτελεί η ποσοτικοποίηση της αλληλεπίδρασης μεταξύ των σεισμών, δηλαδή η ιδιότητα της σεισμικής διαδικασίας να διατηρεί τα χαρακτηριστικά. Απαραίτητη προϋπόθεση είναι η ανεύρεση του μεγέθους πληρότητας και η αποκλασματοποίηση των σεισμικών καταλόγων. Δημιουργούνται χρονοσειρές και εξετάζονται η ύπαρξη συσταδοποίησης, μακράς και βραχείας μνήμης-εμμονής της πρόσφατης και ισχυρής σεισμικότητας. Η παρουσία μακροπρόθεσμης και βραχυπρόθεσμης μνήμης μελετάται με τη βοήθεια του  συντελεστή Hurst και του συντελεστή αυτοσυσχέτισης ACF μαζί με τη πιθανή συσχέτιση του Hurst με τη χωρική και χρονική μεταβολή της σεισμικότητας. Η δυναμική παρουσία της μνήμης αποδυκνείεται έντονα, ειδικά για τους  ενδιαμέσους χρόνους με τον Κορινθιακό κόλπο να υπερτερεί σημαντικά. Τελικό στόχο της διατριβής αποτελεί η διερεύνηση της αλληλεπίδρασης μεταξύ των  σημαντικότερων ρηγμάτων σύμφωνα με την εξέλιξη του πεδίου των τάσεων λόγω της σεισμικής ολίσθησης και τεκτονικής φόρτισης. Για το σκοπό αυτό
λαμβάνονται υπόψιν οι ισχυροί σεισμοί από το 1700 μέχρι σήμερα. Προσδιορίζονται τα μοντέλα διάρρηξης και υπολογίζονται οι μεταβολες της τάσης Coulomb oι οποίες προκαλούνται κατά τη γένεση κάθε ισχυρού σεισμού. Λαμβάνοντας υπόψιν την τεκτονική φόρτιση από την διαρκή κίνηση των μικροπλακών στην περιοχή του Αιγαίου, ανακατασκευάζεται το διαδοχικό πεδίο των τάσεων πριν και μετά από κάθε σεισμό μέχρι τη σημερινή κατάσταση.Τα αποτελέσματα δείχνουν ότι ο βαθμός επικέντρωσης της παραμόρφωσης εκδηλώνεται μέσω της σεισμικής συμπεριφοράς. Η ισχυρή επικέντρωση της παραμόρφωσης στον Κορινθιακό κόλπο όπως αποδυκνύεται από ανάλογες μελέτες είναι υπεύθυνη για την ισχυρή παρουσία συσταδοποίησης και μακροπρόθεσμης μνήμης για τους ενδιαμεσους χρόνους και
αποστάσεις μεταξύ των σεισμών, οι οποίοι προκαλούνται πάνω σε κυρίαρχες τεκτονικές δομές. Αντίθετα, στην Μυγδονία συγκριτικά με τον Κορινθιακό, πραγματοποιείται μια περισσότερο κατανεμημένη παραμόρφωση στο πληθυσμό ρηγμάτων, όπου μικρά δευτερεύοντα ρήγματα συμμετέχουν ενεργά στην εξέλιξη της σεισμικότητας η οποία εκδηλώνει μια σεισμική συμπεριφορά με πιο ασθενή την διατήρηση μνήμης και την χωροχρονική συσταδοποίηση συγκριτικά με τον Κορινθιακό κόλπο.

The main purpose of this dissertation is the study and the identification of the seismotectonic and stochastic characteristics of two active fault populations  located in Greece. The investigation of possible interactions between faults and earthquakes is based on the stochastic tools which unveil hidden information on seismic activity and the dependence of earthquakes on stress distribution. The two study areas, Mygdonia basin and Corinth Rift have experienced strong and frequent seismicity. The epicentral distribution of earthquakes provides information on the presence of major or subsidiary faults. One of the most important objectives is the relocation of earthquake coordinates. Pairs of P- and S- seismic wave phases are employed for the application of Wadati methodology, the
calculation of the velocity ratio and station delays. All the above data are further used as an input to the Hypoinverse and HypoDDalgorithm. The spatial and temporal investigation of earthquake distribution shows an indication of earthquake migration and clustering. Cross sections perpendicular to the dominant azimuth of the main seismogenic faults contributes to the identification of fault geometry. The second objective is the quantification of  interaction between earthquakes and the ability of seismicity to maintain its characteristics in time. Stochastic methodologies are applied on seismic catalogs owing different features in all magnitude scales. The completeness magnitude is estimated and catalogs are declustered when needed. Time-series were created for the interevent time and the interevent distance between consecutive events along with successive magnitudes and were investigated for their clustering and the existence of long and short memory in all cases of strong and minor seismicity. The existence of memory content  is investigated with the help of the Hurst coefficient and the autocorrelation coefficient. Long memory is proved to be one of the most important characteristics of seismicity, especially for the recent microseismicity of the Corinth Rift. The final objective is the investigation of the interactions among the major faults in each study area, based on the evolution of the stress field. For this reason, the strong earthquakes that occurred in the two study  areas since 1700 are considered. Rupture models are prepared and coseismic Coulomb stress changes are computed. The incorporation of the tectonic loading measured by geodetic means is incorporated and the evolutionary stress field is reconstructed until present. Finally, a synthesis of all results is attempted in combination with the geological and seismotectonic information. Results show that the different degree of deformation localization into the two study areas  is imprinted on seismicity catalogs. The stronger strain localization in the Corinth Rift is responsible for the strong indications of clustering and long memory content for interevent time and distance, meaning that seismicity mostly occurs along the main fault zones. On the other hand, a relatively more  distributed deformation pattern in Mygdonia graben, compared to Corinth Rift, where subsidiary small faults are brought into failure due to the occurrence of strong earthquakes account for earthquake occurrence and exhibit a weaker degree of spatiotemporal memory and clustering.

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