Συνοπτική, δυναμική και αριθμητική μελέτη ενός έντονου βαρομετρικού χαμηλού στη Μεσόγειο = Synoptic, dynamic and numerical study of an intense Mediterranean cyclone.

Σωτήριος - Θεοχάρης Παντελής Φωτιάδης

Συνοπτική, δυναμική και αριθμητική μελέτη ενός έντονου βαρομετρικού χαμηλού στη Μεσόγειο = Synoptic, dynamic and numerical study of an intense Mediterranean cyclone.

Σωτήριος - Θεοχάρης Παντελής Φωτιάδης

Περίληψη

Η Μεσόγειος θάλασσα αποτελεί μία από τις βασικές περιοχές κυκλογένεσης παγκοσμίως. Πολλές από αυτές τις υφέσεις συνοδεύονται από έντονα καιρικά φαινόμενα, με σημαντικές επιπτώσεις τόσο στην ανθρώπινη ζωή, δραστηριότητα και περιουσία όσο και στο φυσικό περιβάλλον. Στην παρούσα εργασία θα μελετηθεί ένα έντονο βαρομετρικό χαμηλό που επηρέασε την Ελλάδα στις 14-16 Οκτωβρίου 2021. Ο λόγος για τον οποίο επιλέχθηκε να μελετηθεί το συγκεκριμένο σύστημα είναι οι έντονες πλημμύρες που προκάλεσε καθώς και η μεγάλη έκταση που επηρέασε. Πιο αναλυτικά, οι περιοχές που δέχτηκαν τα μεγαλύτερα ύψη βροχής ήταν τα νησιά του Ιονίου Πελάγους, η δυτική Στερεά Ελλάδα και Πελοπόννησος, η Κεντρική-Ανατολική Μακεδονία, η Χαλκιδική, η Αττική, καθώς και τμήμα της Νότιας Εύβοιας. Η ραγδαιότητα των βροχοπτώσεων ήταν ιδιαίτερα έντονη, προκαλώντας πολλές κατολισθήσεις, καταστροφές σε σπίτια καθώς και έναν θάνατο. Στις 14 Οκτωβρίου, οι μετεωρολογικοί σταθμοί του Εθνικού Αστεροσκοπείου Αθηνών στην Ιθάκη και στην περιοχή Πατήσια της Αθήνας κατέγραψαν 343.4 mm και 147.4 mm υετού, αντίστοιχα. Από την ΕΜΥ για το διάστημα από τις 13/10 06 UTC έως τις 17/10 06 UTC, μετρήθηκαν 190.6 mm βροχής στον σταθμό της Κεφαλονιάς, 148.9 mm στον σταθμό της Κέρκυρας και 136 mm στον σταθμό της Ανδραβίδας. Στο υπό μελέτη σύστημα δόθηκε η ονομασία «Μπάλλος». Επίσης, σημαντικό είναι να αναφερθεί ότι κατά την περίοδο εμφάνισης αυτής της έντονης ύφεσης, παρατηρήθηκαν στην Κεντρική και Ανατολική Μεσόγειο σχετικά υψηλότερες επιφανειακές θερμοκρασίες θάλασσας (ΕΘΘ) από τις κανονικές. Αυτό αποτελεί σημαντικό κίνητρο διερεύνησης του ρόλου τους στην ανάπτυξη του βαρομετρικού χαμηλού και της ευαισθησίας των προσομοιώσεων σε διαφορετικά δεδομένα ΕΘΘ. Ο σκοπός της παρούσας μελέτης είναι η συνοπτική και δυναμική ανάλυση αυτού του συστήματος, καθώς και η αριθμητική μελέτη της ευαισθησίας του στις διαφορετικές πηγές ΕΘΘ. Στην εργασία χρησιμοποιήθηκαν δεδομένα παρατηρήσεων, δορυφορικές εκτιμήσεις, επιχειρησιακές πλεγματικές αναλύσεις από το Ευρωπαϊκό Κέντρο Μεσοπρόθεσμων Προγνώσεων Καιρού (ECMWF) και διαφορετικά προϊόντα ΕΘΘ. Αυτά τα δεδομένα συνδυάστηκαν με προσομοιώσεις που πραγματοποιήθηκαν με το μη υδροστατικό αριθμητικό μοντέλο πρόγνωσης καιρού Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) με τον δυναμικό πυρήνα Advanced Research σε δύο πλέγματα με χωρική διακριτοποίηση 6km x 6km και 2km x 2km. Αρχικά, πραγματοποιήθηκαν προσομοιώσεις με διαφορετικές παραμετροποιήσεις ανωμεταφοράς και χωρίς παραμετροποίησής της. Τα αποτελέσματα της στατιστικής αξιολόγησης ανέδειξαν πιο αξιόπιστο σχήμα ανωμεταφοράς το Kain-Fritsch, το οποίο χρησιμοποιήθηκε στα πειράματα ευαισθησίας. Στη συνέχεια, διενεργήθηκαν πειράματα ευαισθησίας με δεδομένα ΕΘΘ από διαφορετικές πηγές και μεθοδολογίες δημιουργίας (NCEP RTG, CMEMS και ECMWF). Με βάση την σημειακή στατιστική αξιολόγηση των προσομοιώσεων των διαφορετικών δεδομένων ΕΘΘ, κρίθηκαν καλύτερες οι ΕΘΘ του NCEP με μικρή διαφορά από το CMEMS για τις συνεχείς μεταβλητές. To ECMWF αναδείχθηκε ως δεύτερο πιο αξιόπιστο πείραμα στη σημειακή στατιστική αξιολόγηση του υετού. Σύμφωνα με τη συνοπτική ανάλυση των αποτελεσμάτων του μοντέλου, μεγαλύτερη ευαισθησία παρουσιάζει η θερμοκρασία και το γεωδυναμικό ύψος στα 850 hPa, οι αισθητές και λανθάνουσες ροές θερμότητες καθώς και ο υετός στα διαφορετικά δεδομένα ΕΘΘ. Αντίθετα, μικρότερη ευαισθησία εμφανίζει η θερμοκρασία στα 500 hPa και η ταχύτητα του ανέμου.

The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most cyclogenetic regions worldwide. Many of these depressions are accompanied by severe weather events, with significant impacts on human life, activity and property as well as on the natural environment. In this work, an intense low that affected Greece on October 14-16, 2021 will be studied. The reason why this particular system was chosen to be studied is the intense floods it caused as well as the large area it affected. More specifically, the areas that received the highest amounts of rain were the islands of the Ionian Sea, western Central Greece and Peloponnese, Central-Eastern Macedonia, Halkidiki, Attica, as well as part of Southern Evia. The rapidity of the rainfall was particularly intense, causing many landslides, destruction of houses and one death. On October 14, the weather stations of the National Observatory of Athens recorded 343.4 mm and 147.4 mm of rain in Ithaca and the Patisia area of Athens, respectively. According to EMY measurements, the rainfall reached 190.6 mm in Kefalonia, 148.9 mm in Corfu and 136 mm in Andravida from 13/10 06 UTC to 17/10 06 UTC. The system under study was named "Ballos". Also, it is important to mention that during the period of occurrence of this intense depression, relatively higher sea surface temperatures (SST) than normal were observed in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean. This is an important motivation to investigate their role in the development of the barometric low and the sensitivity of the simulations to different SST data. The aim of this study is the synoptic and dynamic analysis of this system, as well as the numerical investigation of its sensitivity to SSTs. In this work used observational data, satellite estimates, operational gridded analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and different products of SSTs. These data were combined with simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) non-hydrostatic numerical model with the Advanced Research dynamical core on two grids with a spatial resolution of 6km x 6km and 2km x 2km. In the first place, simulations were performed with different cumulus schemes parameterizations and without cumulus scheme. The results of the statistical evaluation showed a more reliable cumulus scheme Kain-Fritsch, which was used in the sensitivity experiments. Next, sensitivity experiments were performed with SST data from different sources and generation methodologies (NCEP RTG, CMEMS, ECMWF). Based on the pointwise statistical evaluation of the simulations of the different SSTs data, the NCEP SSTs were judged better with a small difference than CMEMS for continuous variables. The dataset ECMWF emerged as the second most reliable experiment in the point statistical assessment of precipitation. According to the synoptic analysis of the model results, the temperature and geopotential height at 850 hPa, the sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as the precipitation show a greater sensitivity to the different SST datasets. Conversely, the temperature at 500 hPa and the wind speed show a lower sensitivity.

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ΔΙΑΔΙΚΤΥΑΚΕΣ ΠΗΓΕΣ

https://www.ecmwf.int/

https://www.meteo.gr/

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

http://212.232.25.232/ng-maps/

https://www.esa.int/

https://www.wetter3.de/

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/

https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/

http://eumetrain.org/

https://weather.uwyo.edu/

https://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/

https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/product/

https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/

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