Hydrological analysis and investigation of the Aoos (Vjosλ) - Voidomatis hydrosystem, Greece

Περίληψη

The main goal of this work is to create a solid background for the further study of the Aoos- Voidomatis hydrosystem. Aoos is the only upstream transboundary river of Greece, and together with its main tributary, Voidomatis, form a unique, protected ecosystem. Currently, there are no hydrological studies in the literature following the construction of the Aoos Springs dam in 1988, or any work to summarize its hydrological and geographical characteristics. This paper examines the extension and supplementation of available hydrological data in several measuring stations of the hydrosystem between 1950 and 2012. The original historical time-series data set created can be used in future studies as primary data prior to and after the construction of the dam. Furthermore, this study provides a forecast for the monthly water flow rates of the river in the future through the creation of a 50-year long synthetic time-series. As a result, the risk of failure to cover existing water needs was estimated. The methodology developed for the supplementation of the historical time-series, as well as, the creation of the synthetic time-series, includes some simple linear regression models and the autoregressive forecast models AR(1) and AR(2). These models were applied to the available data with statistically significant results. The main conclusion that derived from this study is that current water flow rates can sufficiently cover the existing water needs; mainly for the irrigation of the Konitsa plain. However, it was proven that the hydrosystem is sensible to climate fluctuations and/or water use.